Hi! I am a Postdoctoral Scholar at the Development Innovation Lab at the University of Chicago.
I completed my PhD (DPhil) at the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford.
My main research interests are in development, behavioural, and organisational economics. I use randomised and natural experiments to help answer policy questions. I am currently studying how digital and financial innovations impact households in low-income rural settings, as well as studying interventions to enhance state effectiveness.
I am also affiliated with the Centre for the Study of African Economies, the Mind and Behaviour Research Group, and scientific director at the Bissau Economics Lab.
Job Market Paper
Information Frictions and Bargaining: Experimental Evidence From Rural Guinea-Bissau
with Brais Álvarez Pereira, Adewusi Mendonça, Dayvikson Raiss Laval Tavares
abstract
We study how reducing information frictions affects market outcomes using a nationwide cluster-randomised trial with cashew producers across 290 villages in Guinea-Bissau. Treated producers received weekly digital updates with market news, farmgate prices, and sales guidance over two trading seasons. Access to this information increased sale prices and encouraged producers to spread sales across multiple transactions. We find evidence of increased bargaining power among treated producers and between-village spillovers, likely transmitted via itinerant buyers that interacted with treated producers. Our results show that low-cost digital market information systems can increase price pass-through to producers in export-oriented commodity markets.
Pre-analysis plan; Draft available upon request.Working papers
The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia
with Tanguy Bernard, Stefan Dercon, Kate Orkin, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
abstract
Aspirations may condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus may play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. We run a randomised control trial in remote, rural Ethiopia to explore this and evaluate an intervention which aims to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations and, through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries featuring individuals from similar communities who escaped poverty through their own efforts and serve as relatable role models. Five years after the screening took place, the treated households had increased future-oriented investments in agriculture, children's education and assets. The results can be explained by an increase in aspirations in terms of lifetime goals. Overall, this research uniquely provides evidence that a light-touch behavioural intervention can have persistent economic impacts on a poor population.
Individual Demand for Building State Effectiveness
with Yetsedaw Emagne Bekele, Harry Dienes, Dan Rogger
[Draft (10/2025)]
abstract
Investments in public sector workers’ human capital can generate social returns by improving service delivery and state effectiveness. Yet it is unclear whether public workers internalise these broader benefits when making investment decisions. We elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) for professional development from Ethiopian public servants and embed randomized interventions targeting perceived returns. Baseline WTP is positive but well below implementation costs. Explicitly emphasising private benefits modestly raises demand, more so than highlighting societal returns. Implicitly increasing the salience of a supportive managerial environment substantially increases WTP, underscoring the role of perceived organisational norms in public service investment decisions.
Selected work in progress
Direct and Indirect Communication Strategies to Deliver Market Information
with Brais Álvarez Pereira, Aliu BÁ, Nério Cá, Aida Embaló, Mattia Fracchia, Matilde Graçio, Adewusi Mendonça, Dayvikson Raiss Laval Tavares
abstract
Access to timely market information can enhance bargaining power in transactions, yet subscription information services reach only a small portion of the market. We conducted a cluster randomized control trial in 187 villages in Guinea-Bissau to compare different channels for disseminating market information. In one third of the villages, producers could receive market updates directly through a subscription service using robocalls and an interactive voice-response system. In the remaining two-thirds of the villages, farmers had access to the service but also received information from community-appointed liaisons who were provided with market updates through weekly calls to a helpline. The liaisons then shared this information with farmers either individually or through group meetings. Amid a challenging cashew season in which prices fell to exceptionally low levels, we found greater use of the service in villages with liaisons and, in some cases, lower prices. This price reduction was observed only in villages where liaisons were appointed by local authorities and not in those where they were chosen democratically. These results indicate that, while human intermediaries can improve access to direct subscription services that provide farming information, the selection method affects effectiveness, underscoring the importance of considering local governance when designing market-advisory interventions.
Pre-analysis plan; Data collection completed. Analysis in progress.Long-run Effects of Increased Access to Asset-collateralized Loans
with Joshua Deutschmann, Alex Lehner, Michael Kremer
abstract
We study the long-run impacts of a temporary expansion in access to water-tank financing for dairy farmers in Kenya. In 2012, farmers were randomly offered a loan with less-restrictive borrowing conditions, enabling treated farmers to acquire water tanks up to seven years earlier than farmers in the control group. By 2023, control households caught up to treated farmers and owned a similar number of tanks. We also document spillovers in technology adoption among neighbors and along milk transporter routes. Control farmers with more treated farmers nearby or sharing a milk transporter with more treated farmers were more likely to adopt water tanks early and have persistently greater water storage in 2023 than other control farmers. Treated farmers sold 10 percent more milk on average between 2013 and 2022 and were less likely to exit cooperative sales. They had higher savings balances, reduced reliance on credit for school fees, and greater investment in girls’ education, with treated girls attending school 10 percent more days per week.
Draft available upon request. Shifting Management for Performance in Ethiopia’s Public Sector
with Yetsedaw Emagne Bekele, Harry Dienes, Dan Rogger
abstract
This project evaluates how exposing public sector middle managers to different management styles influences their beliefs about effective management and organisational performance. This project studies whether exposing Ethiopian public managers to alternative leadership styles can shift beliefs about effective management, affect learning, and ultimately improve administrative performance. In a randomized controlled trial with middle managers in Ethiopia, participants viewed video narratives depicting either enabling or monitoring supervisory styles, followed by reinforcement messages via email and SMS. We measure impacts on managers’ own styles, attitudes, and the performance of their units, drawing on surveys of treated managers, their supervisors, and their supervisees. The contribution of this study is twofold: it is the first to test a scalable, light-touch intervention designed to change management practices, and the first to account for the hierarchical nature of organizations—particularly in the public sector—by capturing effects across multiple layers of management.
Pre-analysis plan; Data collection and intervention in progress.Labour Market Effects of Ethiopia’s Social Safety Net
abstract
This paper assesses how a large transfer programme combining public works and unconditional transfers to food-insecure households in rural Ethiopia affects local labour markets. Using repeated cross-sections of the National Labour Force Survey, I show that the programme did not change employment rates or wages in this rural economy. Instead, I find that workers shifted from agricultural to non-agricultural self-employment. I complement this analysis using data from the Ethiopian Socio-Economic surveys and find similar results. These results are at odds with previous work due to the thinness of rural wage markets in Ethiopia.
Draft available upon request.Policy reports
“Catalyzing Innovation: Scaling Solutions for Resilient Agriculture”, with members of the International Finance Corporation Impact Evaluation Team and the Secreteriat of the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security, and Agriculture 2025. International Finance Corporation.
“Measuring the Impacts of The Ethiopian Management Institute Training and Consulting Services” with Yetsedaw Emagne Bekele, Harry Dienes, Dan Rogger. 2023. World Bank.
“Investing in Human Capital and Foundational Skills”, with Emily Gardner in Guinea-Bissau Country Economic Memorandum. 2020. World Bank, pp. 47-73.
“Guinea-Bissau Malaria Indicator Survey 2017 Report”, with Amabélia Rodrigues, Cesério Martins, Ronise da Silva, Bruno da Silva, Aladje Balde, Tom Hall. 2018. Bissau Health Project.
Teaching
University of Oxford (undergraduate):
Development Economics (tutorials), Department of Economics, 2023.
Econometrics (tutorials), Merton College, Exeter College, Worcester College, 2022-2023.
Econometrics and Microeconomics (revision classes), Merton College, 2022.
Introductory Microconomics and Statistics (revision classes), Merton College, 2022.
University of Oxford (postgraduate):
Policy Evaluation (seminars), Blavatnik School of Government, 2021.